The paper · August 2026
One Shot: What 39,000 Listings and 25 Years of MLS Data Say About Pricing Arizona’s Luxury Market
The first published full-history pricing study of Arizona’s $2M+ market. Nearly half of all selling campaigns fail. The “priced right, sells in days” rule is false at every tier. And the discount is taken in public — before the buyer ever writes an offer.
Nine findings · 29,322 campaigns · 1998–2026 · 14-page PDF
Study · August 2026
The Market Prices Evidence, Not Ambition
Across 37,688 luxury listings, the market rescued an unrealistic price almost never. 56% of listings fail; even the winners discount 6.7% from ask. Raising an unproven price fails 60% of the time — while a resale anchored to a completed sale rises 81% of the time. The market prices what a buyer has paid, not what a seller hopes.
37,688 listings · 2008–2026 · method & limits published
Living study · updated Fridays
The Marta Walsh Index: A Weekly Health Gauge for the $2M+ Market
Supply against demand, corrected for season and measured against the tier’s own norm — back-tested to 2005, refreshed every Friday. Includes the off-market shadow pool no other gauge counts.
Weekly · methods fixed August 2026 · full backtest
Short study · August 2026
The New Market: Arizona Ultra-Luxury Became Its Own Category
Two decades of 0–3 sales a year above $10M; fifty-one by late August 2026 — into a below-normal market. Half of them homes that didn’t exist two years ago, 82% in two places. The measurements that make a segment.
153 closings 2023–26 · constant-quality tested · 2026 partial
Short study · August 2026
You Make Your Own Market: Launch-Week Conditions and 21,978 Campaign Outcomes
From a market a third below normal to one at two-and-a-half times normal, the share of luxury launches that ever sold moved four points. The extremes decide; everywhere else, the ask does.
21,978 campaigns · 2005–2024 · era-split validation
Short study · August 2026
The Word That Left: Master to Primary in Arizona Listings
For twenty-two years, every Arizona luxury listing that named the room called it the master. Then, in nineteen quarters, it was gone. A vocabulary replacement dated to the quarter — and a look at whether it moved by firm, by agent, or neither.
11,239 listings · 1998–2026