The Marta Walsh Index · week ending Aug 14, 2026
Normal — Your price decides
The luxury market is a touch cooler than its five-year norm. In this wide band, history says the asking price — not the market — determines whether a home sells.
buyers vanish — rare
your price decides the outcome
frenzy — rare
The past 12 months
Season already accounted for — a summer dip here is real cooling, not the calendar.
The past 5 years
The 2021–22 frenzy peaked at 701 — seven times normal. Today is ordinary by comparison.
What this number is
Every Friday we count two things across Arizona’s $2 million-plus market: how many homes are for sale, and how fast buyers are putting them under contract. The ratio, corrected for the season and compared to the tier’s own five-year norm, is the index. At 100, the luxury market is behaving like its usual self.
One honest caveat, learned from 25 years of data: inside the wide normal band, the index doesn’t decide whether your home sells — your asking price does. Launches at index 85 and index 160 succeed at nearly identical rates. The market takes over only at the rare extremes.
How this is built, in full → · The 25-year study behind it →
Want this reading for your city or community?
The index above covers all of Arizona’s $2M+ market. We run the same measurement for a single city or community on request — Paradise Valley, Silverleaf, DC Ranch, your neighborhood — free. It’s the first thing we’d prepare for a listing conversation anyway.
Email marta.walsh@russlyon.com with the community you have in mind.
Based on information from the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service for the period January 1, 1998 through the issue date shown. Compiled and analyzed by the author; ARMLS did not produce and does not endorse this analysis. Not a prediction for any individual property.