The Marta Walsh Index: Normal — Your price decides

Absorption is a touch above the market's own pace over the prior five years. In this wide band, history is blunt: the asking price — not the market — decides whether a home sells.

At 116.2 the index is the firmest it has been since October 2023, a fourth straight week up. The median luxury home for sale today has been on the market 101 days, and 58 of 1,050 tracked listings cut price this week against four that raised.

New here? What this number means →

this week

Under 70
cold — rare

70–250 · the wide normal band
your price decides the outcome

Over 250
frenzy — rare

Waiting off-market

1,148 homes

Tried to sell, failed, not yet returned. History expects ~176 back within 13 weeks — supply the active count can't see.

Cut their price this week

5.5%

58 of 1,050 active sellers, median cut 2.1%. 4 raised.

Under contract within two weeks

35%

Share of the past eight weeks’ contracts written on homes listed 14 days or less. Ran 35% in the frenzy, 21% in 2019.

Old or returning listings

72%

Share of active listings that are past 90 days or back after a failed campaign. Of 1,143 homes for sale, 316 are fresh. Same week: 61% in the frenzy, 86% in 2019.

Fresh vs. returning

191 / 167

New listings this month: first-timers vs. homes back after a failed campaign.

How to read these cards: the two markets →

The past 12 months

Season already accounted for — a summer dip here is real cooling, not the calendar.

The past 5 years

The 2021–22 frenzy ran several times the market’s normal pace — the fastest clearing in the record. Today sits just above normal by comparison.

One honest caveat, learned from 25 years of data: inside the wide normal band, the index doesn’t decide whether your home sells — your asking price does. Launches at index 85 and index 160 succeed at nearly identical rates. The market takes over only at the rare extremes. The study behind that →

Every past issue → · How this is built, in full →

Want this reading for your city or community?

The Marta Walsh Index covers Arizona’s $2M+ market as covered by ARMLS — Maricopa County in full, plus Flagstaff, Sedona and Tucson. We run the same measurement for a single city or community on request — Paradise Valley, Silverleaf, DC Ranch, your neighborhood — free. It’s the first thing we’d prepare for a listing conversation anyway.

Email marta.walsh@russlyon.com with the community you have in mind.

Call or text — 480 274 5710 Get in touch — 480 274 5710

Based on information from the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service for the period January 1, 1998 through the issue date shown. Compiled and analyzed by the author; ARMLS did not produce and does not endorse this analysis. Not a prediction for any individual property. Index values, the weekly data file, the published methodology and this study are licensed CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with attribution.