The $2M+ market · week ending Oct 2, 2026
The Marta Walsh Index: Normal — Your price decides
Absorption is a touch above the market's own pace over the prior five years. In this wide band, history is blunt: the asking price — not the market — decides whether a home sells.
At 124.1, no week has read firmer since September 2023. Sellers are still adjusting, though: one in fourteen listings cut its price this week, median 3.0%.
cold — rare
your price decides the outcome
frenzy — rare
How to read these cards: the two markets →
The past 12 months
Season already accounted for — a summer dip here is real cooling, not the calendar.
The past 5 years
The 2021–22 frenzy ran several times the market’s normal pace — the fastest clearing in the record. Today sits just above normal by comparison.
One honest caveat, learned from 25 years of data: inside the wide normal band, the index doesn’t decide whether your home sells — your asking price does. Launches at index 85 and index 160 succeed at nearly identical rates. The market takes over only at the rare extremes. The study behind that →
Want this reading for your city or community?
The Marta Walsh Index covers Arizona’s $2M+ market as covered by ARMLS — Maricopa County in full, plus Flagstaff, Sedona and Tucson. We run the same measurement for a single city or community on request — Paradise Valley, Silverleaf, DC Ranch, your neighborhood — free. It’s the first thing we’d prepare for a listing conversation anyway.
Email marta.walsh@russlyon.com with the community you have in mind.
Based on information from the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service for the period January 1, 1998 through the issue date shown. Compiled and analyzed by the author; ARMLS did not produce and does not endorse this analysis. Not a prediction for any individual property. Index values, the weekly data file, the published methodology and this study are licensed CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with attribution.