Scottsdale Market Notes — March 2026
Sent with the subject line “Can't stop thinking about it? Neither can we. 🤔”
Spring has arrived in the desert — and the luxury market is making a strong statement. Sales over $3M are up 26% year-to-date, and ultra-luxury closings over $10M have already hit 81% of last year's full-year total. The energy at the top of the market is real and worth paying attention to.
The broader market is more nuanced. Rates briefly dipped to 5.99% in late February before ticking back up toward 6.4% following geopolitical uncertainty. Buyer demand is recovering, but patiently. Well-priced homes are still moving. I'll walk you through everything below.
As always, reach out anytime — I'm here to help you navigate whatever comes next.
— Marta
Phoenix Metro · March 2026
Market Snapshot
+10.2%
Contracts YoY
9,833 under contract
+26%
$3M+ Sales YTD
vs. same period 2025
26
$10M+ Closings
81% of 2025 full-year
© 2026 Cromford Associates LLC & Tamboer Consulting LLC
For Buyers
Contract activity is running 10.2% ahead of last year, fueled by mortgage rates that stabilized below 6.2% since Christmas — and briefly hit 5.99% in late February. The Cromford® Demand Index shows demand is still 13% below normal for Phoenix, but that's a notable improvement from 16% below last month and 24% below in August 2025.
New listings have pulled back — February and March-to-date are both down 7% year-over-year. With fewer homes replenishing supply, overall inventory growth has stalled. Last month inventory was up 9% over last year; now it's narrowed to just 5%. At this pace, inventory could dip below 2025 levels by April.
A note of caution: geopolitical events in late February pushed rates back up to around 6.4%. This creates a short-term decision for buyers — accept roughly a 5% higher monthly payment, or reduce purchasing power by the same margin. If rates ease, a surge in new contracts is likely to follow quickly.
For Sellers
Monthly closings are holding steady with last year, and current pending activity suggests improvement over the next 4–6 weeks. The headline story is the luxury segment: sales over $3M are up 26% year-to-date. And the ultra-luxury tier — homes over $10M — has already recorded 26 closings in 2026. That's 81% of last year's full-year total before Q1 is even complete.
Single-family activity is strongest along the 101 corridor — North Scottsdale, Desert Ridge, Cave Creek, Moon Valley — particularly in the $600K–$800K range. For luxury sellers at the top of the market, conditions have rarely been more favorable.
The overall message for sellers remains: patience and precision. Buyers are still negotiating — selling prices are averaging around 93.5% of original list. Median days on market is 36. Price correctly from the start, present beautifully, and your home will move.
Commentary by Tina Tamboer, Senior Housing Analyst, The Cromford Report. © 2026 Cromford Associates LLC & Tamboer Consulting LLC.
Currently Active
Our Listings
Desert Mountain · Scottsdale, AZ 85262
10381 E Loving Tree Lane
4,007 sq ft · 3 Bed · 4 Bath · MLS# 6935093
$2,999,000
Scottsdale, AZ 85255
9851 E Desert Jewel Drive
4,335 sq ft · 5 Bed · 5 Bath · MLS# 6968888
$2,499,000
Optima Camelview Village · Scottsdale, AZ 85251
7157 E Rancho Vista Dr, #3006
2,312 sq ft · 3 Bed · 2 Bath · MLS# 6966559
$1,750,000
Scottsdale, AZ 85259
14341 E Geronimo Road
2,902 sq ft · 4 Bed · 4 Bath · MLS# 6969726
$1,099,000
Under Contract — Backups Welcome · Scottsdale, AZ 85258
10267 E San Salvador Drive
2,358 sq ft · 4 Bed · 3 Bath · MLS# 6947804
$1,425,000
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Design & Décor
Interiors
The interior design mood for 2026 has a clear through-line: warmth, craft, and intention. After years of cool minimalism, designers are layering in earthy tones — terracottas, deep burgundies, moss greens — alongside antique furniture, artisanal finishes, and pieces that look better the longer you live with them. "Lived-in luxury" is the phrase being used most.
"Midimalism" Is the New Minimalism
The term blending minimalism and maximalism — curated, personal, never sterile — is showing up in luxury homes everywhere. Smart technology seamlessly woven in is part of the picture too. Read more →
The Warmth Takeover: Earthy Palettes & Tactile Materials
Warm, earthy tones — rich terracottas, deep greens, caramel neutrals — are replacing cool grays and whites. Boucle, linen, stone, and raw wood are layering together in ways that feel luxurious and timeless. StyleBlueprint →
Art Deco Is Back — and It Feels Right for Scottsdale
Bold geometry, lacquered surfaces, brass and gold metallic accents, jewel-toned upholstery — Art Deco is making a modern comeback in high-end homes. In desert environments with dramatic light and views, it's a natural fit. Houzz 2026 →
Around Town
In the Neighborhood
Din Tai Fung Opens at Scottsdale Fashion Square
The globally celebrated Taiwanese dumpling house soft-opened March 12 in a 10,000 sq ft, 340-seat space — one of the most anticipated dining arrivals Arizona has ever seen. Grand opening April 20. AZ Foothills →
The Henry Opens in North Scottsdale
Sam Fox's beloved all-day dining concept opened its third Valley location March 18 at Scottsdale 101. Full menu, walk-up coffee bar, pastries, weekend brunch, and a fireplace patio. KTAR →
BOA Steakhouse Coming to Scottsdale Waterfront
The Hollywood-favorite steakhouse opens at Scottsdale Waterfront in H1 2026 — with an exclusive sourcing deal with the legendary 6666 (Four Sixes) Ranch from the Yellowstone universe. Scottsdale.com →
Mendocino Farms Now Open in Gainey Village
California's go-to fresh lunch spot is now open at The Shops Gainey Village. A second North Scottsdale location is planned for Scottsdale Promenade later this year. Phoenix New Times →
PV Mall Transformation Continues
The 100+ acre redevelopment now has 10 restaurants open, with Cala, The Vig, and Harry & Izzy's all coming in 2026. A destination worth revisiting. Phoenix New Times →
TPC Scottsdale's 16th Hole Gets a Major Upgrade
Construction is underway on a significant redesign — expanded bays, higher ceilings, and frameless glass railings. The WM Phoenix Open experience keeps getting better. ABC15 →
That's the March update. Enjoy the perfect if slightly too hot already desert weather — it truly is the best time of year to be here. If you have any questions about the market, a specific property, or just want to think through your options, I'm always just a call or email away.
Marta Walsh has been writing this newsletter since 2012. Read the full archive, or find out what your home is worth today.