Real estate moves in waves. Up and down always cyclical. 2013 is a new year and the market is moving. Here are my must have real estate statistics to keep you informed as we begin the year.
All the statistics below are for the Town of Paradise Valley, zip code 85253. The stats are compiled from Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS).
Currently Active Listings: 285
Median List Price: $1,875,000
Average Days on Market: 211
Homes currently under contract: 58
Median List Price: $1,267,000
Average Days on Market: 188
This tells us that the lower half of the market is still hotter than the more expensive homes. However this does compare favorably to last year.
For closed transactions in 2012
Number of sales: 477
Median List Price: $960,000
Median Sales Price: $906,000
Average Days on Market: 175
Comparing median sales price of $906,000 to the median list price of the currently under contract homes shows the market is making significant gains.
Average monthly sales for Paradise Valley was 39.75 homes in 2012. Comparing that to current inventory shows 7 months of supply. This would be seen as a fairly balanced market. Where sellers and buyers both have good opportunities.
The influence of short sales and bank owned properties is now minimal. There are only 13 active distressed homes on the market. That’s 4.5% of the market and dropping. There were 87 distressed sales in 2012, compared to 165 in 2011. I believe there will be less than 50 in 2013.
The key statistic will be inventory. There won’t be significant inventory coming from distressed sales so it’s worth keeping a close eye on the number of homes active for sale. If that number remains under 300 there will be continued upwards pressure on prices. Only if inventory pushes back towards 400 will supply side start putting downward pressure on prices again.
My prediction for 2013 is another year of sales between 450 and 500 total sales. But with steady price rises throughout the year. The only real danger to price rises being if enough sellers are encouraged by the higher prices that there is a significant influx of inventory.